India’s Carbon Sink Crisis: Why Net-Zero Needs Nature

Because of the heat stress, erratic rainfall, and salinity encroachment, India is losing its forests, wetlands, and blue-carbon ecosystems due to their inability to take up CO2. Research points to a reduction in the photosynthetic capacity in the vital areas, thus undermining the 2070 net-zero commitment of the country. The existing climate policy puts emphasis on renewable energy and does not pay much attention to the stability of the ecosystem, so restoration and systematic monitoring of natural carbon sinks are necessary.India's net-zero goals are threatened by a weakening carbon sink, primarily forests, which are absorbing less carbon dioxide due to heat stress, making it harder to offset emissions from sources like fossil fuels.

The use of the Indian natural ecosystems as credible carbon sinks also assumes that India can reach a state of net-zero emissions by 2070. In the past, forests, wetlands, mangroves, and seagrass meadows have been capturing huge amounts of atmospheric CO2, offsetting the human-made emissions and moderating ecological processes. However, according to the current scientific studies, these ecosystems are more susceptible to climate-related stressors. Increasing temperatures, extended heatwave, unpredictable monsoon rhythms, and salinization of coastal areas reduce their photosynthetic capacity and carbon accumulation. This has deteriorated the natural sinks and made the climate policy of India critical since it has mostly focused on energy transition and technological mitigation, and minimized the issue of ecosystem resilience. This reduction in the absorption capacity not only endangers the carbon budget of India but also poses a risk to the biodiversity, livelihood, and adaptive pathways. It is consequently important to be conscious of the vulnerability of such natural systems. The all-encompassing climate plan should include ecosystem-based planning, focus on restoring eroded landscapes, and incorporate carbon sink well-being in the framework of national monitoring. In the absence of such action, the net-zero path of India is threatened to be weakened by the subtle weakening of its greatest partners in curbing climate change.

The Net‑Zero Imperative India's Carbon Journey Toward Net-Zero

India has made a commitment to achieving a net-zero by the year 2070, which involves one of the most ambitious climate commitments in the Global South. This is not a simple political assertion but a structural requirement due to the fact that the country is susceptible to climatic conditions and also because the country has developmental goals. To accomplish a net-zero pathways it requires a strict equilibrium between gas emissions and natural carbon sinks, such as forests, wetlands, mangroves, and seagrass. India's "carbon sink crisis" refers to the challenge of maintaining and enhancing natural carbon absorption (forests, wetlands) amidst development needs, which is a critical part of the nation's strategy to achieve its net-zero emissions target by 2070.

Net-Zero as a Developmental Greenfield
Net-zero goals do not just focus on decreasing the emissions of greenhouse gases; they are associated with the equalisation between the development of economies and their ecological sustainability. The process of energy shift to India, modernisation of industries and urban growth is to be coordinated with ecological resilience. Increased emphasis is placed on renewable energy, transport electrification, and efficiency in the Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Strategy presented to the UNFCCC, although the importance of land-based carbon sinks is also acknowledged as critical to bringing the level of emissions under control. Without these natural absorbers, the balancing activity of growth and sustainability is weakened.

The instability of Natural Carbon Sinks
According to recent research, the carbon sinks in India are being destroyed by the climatic stress. Forests have a lower photosynthetic efficiency in certain areas, and wetlands and mangroves are faced with salinity and a lack of fresh water. Previously seen as the dependable negative emissions property, these ecosystems are now under increased heatwaves, erratic monsoon and sea-level rise. The fact that their absorption capacity is on the decline threatens the net-zero pathway of India, and this is a reminder that even the intervention of technology cannot guarantee a stable climate.

Climate Strategy Policy Blind Spots
The policies of climate in India have been mostly based on renewable energy development and global climate negotiations. However, the issue of ecosystem resilience is not given due priority. The assumption that carbon sequestration is recognition of the ecological complexity of the relationship between afforestation or plantation efforts is made despite the automatic consideration of the emissions. Fewer sinks result in the creation of a hidden deficit in the carbon budget of India, and this may cause an overshoot of its target of 2070. The only way forward with regard to this blind spot is through integrating ecosystem health in national climate monitoring systems and funds.

On the Way to an Integrated Net-Zero
As a result, the net-zero imperative should be put in a new perspective as both a technological and environmental issue. It is imperative that the degraded forests are restored, that wetlands are maintained, and blue-carbon ecosystems are safeguarded, as solar resources and wind are increased. Natural sinks may be reinforced with the help of community-led conservation, species selection based on climate adaptation and adaptive governance. It is just within the context of including ecosystem-based solutions within climate policy, whereby India can protect its developmental path and also meet its international climate obligations.

Scientific Results of Weakening Sinks

The Natural ecosystem of India, the forests, wetlands, and coastal blue-carbon habitats are the systems that have played the historic role of being important carbon dioxide absorbers of the atmosphere. However, recent scientific research indicates that the effectiveness of these sinks is declining due to the increasing stresses in the climatic conditions, hence casting doubts on whether they can be relied upon in the net-zero paths that India is pursuing. Scientific studies indicate that India's forest carbon sinks are weakening, with potentially severe results for the country's climate goals and environment.

A reduction in Forest Photosynthetic Efficiency
Research by IIT Kharagpur, which has been supported by the works of IIT Bombay and BITS Pilani, suggests that the efficiency of photosynthesis in dense forest areas has dropped by up to 12 percent in the last 20 years. The heat waves, extensive droughts, and irregular monsoon precipitation reduce the ability of trees to convert incident solar radiation and atmospheric CO2 into biomass. This reduces the capacity of the forests to absorb carbon, thereby defying the belief that increasing forest cover will offset the rising emissions.

Exposure of the Mangroves and Wetlands
Traditionally considered to be a strong carbon sink, wetlands and mangrove ecosystems are becoming threatened by the intrusion of salt and the rise of sea levels, as well as by human activities threatening to destroy these habitats. These pressure exertors reduce their ability to trap carbon in the woods and soils. Among the most vulnerable plant species to rising seas and changed hydrologic regimes are the mangroves, where carbon sequestration combined with a defense against coastal waves occurs. Their degrading functionality is an indication of a two-fold loss, not just in terms of decreased carbon uptake but also in the level of exposure to hazards caused by climate change.

Blue-Carbon Ecosystems on the Edge
Other coastal blue-carbon ecosystems in India, such as seagrass meadows, also show evidence of environmental stress. High temperatures and acidification in the oceans have an adverse effect on their growth and the capacity to store carbon. Although these systems in most instances are ignored in national climate policy, they play a central role in long-term sequestration owing to the ability to trap carbon in sediments over a long time. The fact that they are being degraded shows the vulnerability of the marine sinks facing global warming.

Climate Policy Implications
There are far-reaching policy implications that are associated with eroding natural sinks. The climate strategy of India that emphasizes the growth of renewable energy has a danger of ignoring the hidden gaps in the carbon budget due to the degrading ecosystem uptake. It has been scientifically proven that technological mitigation alone cannot ensure net-zero, but ecosystem resilience has to be included in policy frameworks. The degraded landscapes should be restored, wetlands should be preserved, and monitoring of blue-carbon systems is essential to the sustainability of climate obligations in India.

Policy Blind Spots and Risks

The climate policy of India has achieved significant levels of improvement in the development of renewable energy as well as in global climate politics. However, this development has a serious oversight. India's carbon sink crisis stems from policy blind spots that overlook the weakening of natural sinks and the exclusion of critical ecosystems like wetlands. Risks include misallocating funds, under-protecting livelihoods, and a flawed carbon market, as recent analysis shows forests and wetlands are sequestering less carbon than they used to.

Excessive stress on the Energy Transition
The next-generation climate policy scenario is solar and wind energy, as well as the electrification of transportation, which is viewed as the main support of the net-zero strategy in India. Although such actions are essential, they will usually overshadow the analysis of the sustainability of the ecosystems. The fact that the ecological complexities that surround the issue of carbon sequestration do not take into account the interventions that can be done technologically to compensate for the emissions poses a premise. Monoculture plantations that are commonly used in afforestation efforts do not replicate the carbon storage functionality and biodiversity provisions of natural forests, which induces a misleading feeling of security with respect to balances of emissions.

Lack of attention to Ecosystem Resilience
The blue-carbon ecosystems, the mangrove, and the wetland are very sparsely captured in the mainstream climate policy. They are degraded by the intrusion of salinities and encroaching cities, and the increase in sea levels to reduce their ability to take in carbon. This neglect not only compromises the carbon budget of India but also the adaptation measures as well, since these ecosystems provide flood control, coastal protection, and food security. By not considering their resistance to stress, it increases the likelihood of increasing the deficits in mitigation and adaptation.

Risks to Net‑Zero Pathway
The cutting off of the carbon sink presents a latent shortfall in the net-zero pathof India. In case the residual emissions cannot be offset by the natural absorbers, India might surpass its target of 2070 regardless of the advancement in technology. Such a shortage would undermine global trust, make climate-related finance talks more difficult, and put people living in at-risk situations at a disadvantage to escalated climatic effects. That risk is systemic in nature, i.e., a structurally fragile net-zero promise occurs when there is no healthy functioning of an ecosystem.

Towards Integrated Policy Reform
The solution to these blind spots would require the incorporation of ecosystem health into the national climate monitoring systems. The policy interventions need to focus on restoring the degraded landscapes, protecting the wetlands, and preserving the coastal ecosystems. Financial tools should also make it easier to have conservation by the community and the development of resilient species to climate change. Taking ecosystem resilience as a part of the overall climate approach, India will be able to reduce risks, enhance its adaptability, and sustain the viability and feasibility of its net-zero courses.

Way Forward

Even the implementation of technological solutions is not enough to achieve the projected realization of the net-zero targets by the year 2070, which is projected to be attained in India. The continuous erosion of the forests, wetlands, and the blue-carbon systems promotes the importance of incorporating the ecosystem viability into the policy concept of climatic conditions. India's strategy to address its carbon sink challenges involves a two-pronged approach: a massive transition to clean energy to reduce emissions and the enhancement of natural and technological carbon sinks.

Putting Priority on Restoration of Degraded Ecosystems
India has seen much deforestation and urban sprawl into its vast expanses of forests and wetlands, which have been degraded through unsustainable land use methods. The restoration activities should also go beyond the normal plantation programs and rather the restoration of ecological integrity. Afforestation with mixed species, restoration of hydrological processes in wetlands, and restoration of mangrove systems can both increase carbon capture and, at the same time, enhance biodiversity. These interventions support mitigation and adaptation goals, resulting in multi-purpose landscapes, which show climate stress resistance.

Integrating Ecosystem Health within Policy Systems
The natural sinks play a crucial role in the balancing of anthropogenic emissions, and this should be specifically brought out in climate policy. The current frameworks focus more inadequately on ecosystem resilience but heavily on renewable energy. Incorporating the  health of carbon sinks within national systems of monitoring, e.g., the State of Forest Report and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), would help create more transparent systems of accountability. The funding instruments, such as carbon credits and green bonds, must be channelled to ecosystem-oriented works, as this is a way of ensuring sustainability in the long term.

Building Local Capacity to Protect Conservation
Local communities are the custodians of forests, wetlands, as well as coastal ecosystems. The sustainable stewardship could be achieved by empowering these actors on the basis of participatory governance, livelihood incentives, and climate-resilient practices. The Odisha-based community-based mangrove planting activity and Assam-based wetland protection programs can be seen as examples of the benefits of community involvement in strengthening ecological resilience. The national extension of such models would incorporate social equity in climate action and streamline the process of mitigation in deeper correlations with the inclusive growth goals.

Uniting Science and Adaptive Governance
The adaptive governance processes have to be informed by systematic scientific monitoring of carbon fluxes, biodiversity health, and the effects of climatic processes. The cooperation of research institutions, policymakers, and civil society organisations can provide evidence-based strategies. Adaptive governance frameworks must be flexible to changing ecological stresses, and in this way, ecosystem-based approaches must be dynamic and effective. This science-policy is necessary to protect the net-zero path of India.

Conclusion

The achievement of the net-zero emission course of India is closely associated with the integrity of its natural carbon sinks. Climatic stresses are causing degradation processes in forests, wetlands, mangroves, and blue-carbon ecosystems and hence decrease their carbon sequestration ability. Current policy guidelines, although encouraging the use of renewable energy, could end up pushing this ecological shortfall. The plausible way of 2070 should thus integrate the ecosystem resilience in climate governance, lay emphasis on restoration programmes and entrench systematic surveillance of the existence of carbon sinks in the national strategies. Without such action, technology is not going to ensure climate stability by itself. Therefore, the reinforcement of natural absorbers is a science requirement as well as a policy necessity for the future of India.