Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu may revive his controversial “India Out” campaign to polarise voters ahead of the 2028 presidential election, according to a warning issued by former Maldivian Foreign Minister Abdulla Shahid. Shahid, who is currently seeking a leadership position within the opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), accused President Muizzu’s administration of shifting the country’s foreign policy back towards an “anti-India” stance. His warning comes after Muizzu’s official bilateral visit to Islamabad, Pakistan, during which the Maldivian government signed 20 Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs). Days after Maldives President Ahmed Muizzu visited Pakistan for a bilateral visit that yielded many agreements, including around 20 Memorandums of Understanding, the former Maldivian Foreign Minister Abdulla Shahid warned that President Mohamed Muizzu could revive anti-India political rhetoric ahead of the 2028 Presidential elections.

Why in the news?

  • President Mohamed Muizzu won the 2023 presidential campaign on “India Out Campaign” and withdrawal of Indian military personnel from Maldives.
  • After the initial conflict, there was some stabilization in India- Maldives relations.
  • Currently, Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu’s state visit to Pakistan on October 20-22 has again revived concern.
  • During the three-day visit, Maldives and Pakistan signed 20 memoranda of understanding.
  • Muizzu also called for reviving SAARC and holding a new summit.

What was the 2023 “India Out Campaign”?

This was the political movement in the Maldives that opposed the presence and influence of Indian Personnel in the Maldives. Although it came to light after 2020 during election times, its roots go back to political tensions under former president Abdulla Yameen from 2013 onward.

Demands made:

  • Withdrawal of Indian military personnel from the Maldives.
  • Removal of Indian personnel operating helicopters and Dornier aircraft gifted by India to the Maldives
  • Cancellation or review of India-funded defence infrastructure projects and a hydrographic survey agreement.
  • Review of more than 100 agreements signed with India during the Solih government’s 2018–2023 tenure.

India’s Response

India adopted a diplomatic and pragmatic response to the political movement in the Maldives by phasing out Indian Military Personnel and replacing them with civilian Technical staff. The situation worsened after derogatory social media remarks by the Maldives official against the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi. This incident triggered a boycott movement against the Maldives in India, which impacted the Maldives tourism Sector. However, India kept official channels open. It continued official help and emergency responses. India also offered financial and economic support during exchange and fiscal stress. Thus, through a diplomatic and pragmatic approach, India normalised its relations with the Maldives.

Significance of Maldives for India

The Maldives is an archipelagic country in the Indian Ocean. Its location makes it important for India's maritime security and regional diplomacy. It is located around 70 nautical miles from Minicoy.

  • Strategic location: The Maldives lies at the hub of major commercial sea lanes. These routes connect the western Indian Ocean with the Gulf of Aden and the Strait of Hormuz, and also with the Strait of Malacca.
  • Maritime security partner: partnership of Maldives is significant for SAGAR and MAHASAGAR vision of India in the Indian Pacific ocean.
  • Strategic competition: Maldives, due to its location, is significant to prevent external hostile military Influence like the String of Pearls policy of China.
  • Central to Neighbourhood First policy of India: The Maldives is also central to India’s Neighbourhood First policy, and India wants to be the first responder in case of any crisis.
  • Regional security: Security of India is very much tied to regional security in the Indian Ocean region. Any disruptions affect trade, economic ties, and sea lanes of communication in the region.
  • Climate and disaster resilience: Both countries have shared interests in climate adaptation, coastal protection, disaster response, and sustainable development, such as joint hydrographic surveys.

Reasons behind the India out Campaign

The campaign was formally launched by opposition parties in 2020 and became a major issue during the 2023 presidential election. Its main drivers were:

  • Domestic Political Gains: Former President Abdulla Yameen and opposition parties used the campaign to criticise President Ibrahim Solih's pro-India policy and mobilise nationalist sentiment ahead of elections.
  • Opposition to Indian military personnel: Indian-provided helicopters and Dornier aircraft, along with Military Personnel to operate these equipment, to the Maldives. Opposition leaders demanded the withdrawal of military personnel.
  • Sovereignty: The campaign misused the concerns about the influence of a larger neighbour. They portrayed close security cooperation as a threat to independent decision-making.
  • India–China strategic competition: China, through its String of Pearls strategy, tries to gain Influence in the Maldives. Alternating governments and political movements have sometimes led to swings in the Maldives’ foreign-policy orientation between India and China.

Could Muizzu’s Pakistan Closeness Turn Into an Anti-India Stance

Muizzu won the 2023 election largely on the “India Out” platform. Anti-India rhetoric may provide a politically convenient way to mobilise nationalist sentiment ahead of the 2028 election. The October 2026 Pakistan visit strengthens that possibility because it included formal defence cooperation. These moves can be framed domestically as reducing dependence on India.

Full Campaign is not Automatic

  • Strategic Diversification: Muizzu expands Pakistan, China, and other partnerships while maintaining working ties with India.
  • India–Maldives relations had also stabilised before this visit of the President to Pakistan.

Muizzu’s closeness to Pakistan creates conditions for anti-India politics, especially ahead of 2028, but it has not yet become an anti-India campaign.

How India Should Respond to Muizzu’s Pakistan Outreach

India should respond in a diplomatic, calm, and pragmatic way while quietly monitoring Pakistan- Maldives defence cooperation.

Way Forward:

  • Avoid overreaction: India has already signalled that it is closely monitoring the Maldives-Pakistan agreements, and should avoid direct public attack.
  • Deepen economic value: India should maintain itself as strategic and reliable economic partner of Maldives and deepen strategic indispensability to prevent Maldives divergence away from India.
  • Set clear red lines privately: New Delhi should accept strategic autonomy of Maldives, but it should communicate privately the redlines line like arrangement that gives Pakistan or China military access.
  • Engage Maldivian society: India should broaden its outreach beyond the presidency to parliament, opposition parties, local governments, businesses, students, media and civil society. This reduces the risk that India becomes identified with one leader or one political faction.

The goal is not to stop the Maldives from having other partners, but to ensure that India remains the most valuable, trusted and indispensable partner in the Indian Ocean.