Political Instability In Nepal

THE NUMBERS

WHAT WAS THE EXISTING POLITICAL SITUATION?

POLITICAL SITUATION IN NEPAL EARLIER (BEFORE MARCH, 2024)

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN NEPAL (POST 2017)

2017: Communist Party of Nepal (formed by the merger of CPN-UML & CPN (Maoist)) came into power. KP Sharma Oli became PM. 2020: Protests going on by some factions to establish Nepal as a Constitutional monarchy (again) and a Hindu nation. Discontent is arising from inefficiency And corruption of the present government. 2021: The KP Sharma Oli government was dissolved in May 2021. Sher Bahadur Deuba of Nepali Congress became the PM on 13 July 2021. (As ordered by SC of Nepal. 2022: CPN (Maoist) leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal forms a coalition Government with Nepali Congress. HOW DOES THIS POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT IN NEPAL IMPACT INDIA? The extraordinary political instability in Nepal is of concern to India. Oli does not enjoy a goodwill with india. But Nepali Congress does. WHY OLI IS NOT A GOOD FRIEND? The actions and statements by Oli in 2015 during the drafting of the Nepalese constitution, which led to protests and the infamous border blockade, had caused a fair bit of bitterness in south Bloc. Oli, who was Prime Minister then, portrayed India as the neighbourhood bully in his country.

AREAS OF COOPERATION

• Nepal, being a landlocked country is dependant on India for its international trade. (Politicians in Nepal have often described the country as being “india-locked”, meaning it needs India for access to ports — a fact of geography that Indian diplomats prefer to frame as being “India-open”)
• TRADE: The Indian foreign policy establishment points out that India is Nepal’s largest trade partner, with bilateral trade crossing $7 billion in FY 2019-20, and that India provides transit for almost all of Nepal’s third country trade. Indian exports to Nepal have grown more than eight times over the past decade, while exports from Nepal have almost doubled.
• COOPERATION DURING COVID: During the Covid-19 pandemic, India provided assistance of more than $7 million to Nepal, which included the supply of more than 23 tonnes of medicines and medical equipment, more than 5 million doses of vaccines, and a medical oxygen plant.
• PEOPLE TO PEOPLE CONNECT:
  • About 8 million Nepalese citizens live and work in India, and some 6 lakh Indians live in Nepal.
  • Indians are about 30% of foreign tourists in Nepal.
  • The bilateral remittance flow is estimated at $3 billion from Nepal to India, and $1 billion from India to Nepal.
• Cooperation in power, water, and infrastructure has been a major element of India’s diplomatic toolkit with regard to Nepal.

THE CHINA CHALLENGE FOR INDIA Nepal is sandwiched between the two Asian giants, and the Nepalese political leadership, including the country’s former monarchs, has long sought to play the China card to manage the relationship with India.

• China has been pouring aid and investment in infrastructure to wean Kathmandu away from New Delhi. Nepalese imports from China almost tripled from (Indian) Rs 49.5 billion in 2013-14 to Rs 138.75 billion ($1.67 billion) in 2022-23.
• With Oli, who has clear China leanings, back in government in Kathmandu, New Delhi would be keenly watching the expected efforts by Beijing to play a more active and influential role in Nepal’s domestic affairs.