Date: March 24, 2025 Location: Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

OVERVIEW OF THE TALKS

  • Participants: U.S. and Russian officials met in Riyadh to discuss a proposed ceasefire focused on the Black Sea between Ukraine and Russia.
  • Objective: The primary goal was to discuss a narrow proposal for a maritime ceasefire, aimed at easing tensions in the Black Sea and ensuring the safe flow of shipping.
  • Context: This is part of a broader diplomatic push by the U.S., under President Donald Trump, to pave the way for peace negotiations after three years of conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

  • Russian Missile Strike: While the talks were ongoing, Russian missile strikes targeted Ukraine, damaging a school and a hospital in the city of Sumy, resulting in 88 casualties.
    • The missile strikes highlight the ongoing violence despite diplomatic efforts.
    • Ukrainian officials condemned Russia’s actions, emphasizing the disconnect between peace rhetoric and military actions.
  • White House Statement: A White House source indicated progress in the talks and hinted at a "positive announcement"
  • Russian Delegation's Mood: Russian officials described their mood as "good" after the talks, though they emphasized that no formal agreements would be signed. A draft joint statement was reportedly sent to both Moscow and Washington for approval.

TALKS FOCUS

  • Maritime Ceasefire: The main point of discussion was establishing a Black Sea maritime truce that would allow for unhindered shipping in the region, which has been a point of tension due to ongoing naval skirmishes. Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Naval Forces: Since 2023, Ukrainian attacks have forced Russian naval forces to retreat further from contested waters, which allowed Ukraine to reopen ports and resume its exports.
  • Wider Peace Talks: U.S. officials, including Andrew Peek (White House National Security Council) and Michael Anton (State Department), participated in discussions to move toward broader peace negotiations.
  • Issues Discussed: Among other topics, discussions included:
    • Territory: Negotiations surrounding territorial boundaries and lines of demarcation.
    • Power and Energy: Discussions on the ownership of power plants and other critical energy infrastructure.

CHALLENGES & DIVERGENT VIEWS

  • Russia’s Maximalist Demands: Russian President Vladimir Putin has remained firm in his demands:
    • Ukraine must drop its NATO ambitions.
    • Ukraine must withdraw from the four regions Russia has unilaterally annexed.
  • S. Stance: The U.S., under Trump, has scaled back its support for Ukraine compared to the previous administration. Trump aims for a quicker resolution to the conflict and has softened his rhetoric on Russia.
    • European Powers' Concerns: Major European nations remain skeptical of whether Putin is genuinely interested in peace or will demand too much in negotiations.

CONTEXT OF THE CONFLICT

  • Ongoing Violence: Despite diplomatic talks, the war continues to rage on, with both sides facing significant casualties. Russia’s missile strikes and ongoing attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure highlight the stark contrast between diplomatic efforts and battlefield realities.
  • Ukrainian Response: Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha criticized Russia's actions, stating that while Russia speaks of peace, it continues to bomb Ukrainian cities, primarily targeting civilian areas.
THE CEASEFIRE DEAL The new agreement is fraught with complications, including Russia's list of conditions.
  • The Kremlin said it won't commit until sanctions are lifted and membership to the Swift payment network is reinstated, demands Trump says he is considering.
  • Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Russia of lying about the terms of the agreement.
  • There are other worries about how durable the deal could be.
    • Russia has broken agreements in the past, and the White House has given little indication it's negotiating in Ukraine's interest alone.
  • Ukraine says the movement of Russian warships westward will be treated as a violation of terms.
FACILITIES WHICH SHOULD NOT BE ATTACKED Moscow has published a list of Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities, external it says US and Russian delegations agreed should not be attacked as part of today's (26 March) agreement. It includes:
  • Oil refineries
  • Oil and gas pipelines and storage facilities, including pumping stations
  • Electricity generation and transmission infrastructure, including power plants, substations, transformers and distributors
  • Nuclear power plants
  • Hydroelectric dams
Russia claims the pause in hostilities on energy targets came into effect on 18 March for 30 days, and says this may be extended by mutual agreement.