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Strategy and foreign affairs for India in 2024: dealing with realities, looking at opportunities from Vajirao & Reddy Institute

By : Author Desk Updated : 2024-01-03 16:51:09

Strategy and foreign affairs for India in 2024: dealing with realities, looking at opportunities

Context- In 2022, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi conveyed to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin that the time was not for warfare. However, 2023 turned out to be a year marked by wars: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is on the verge of entering its third year, and the war in the Gaza Strip, initiated by an attack from Hamas on October 7, has become one of the most devastating in recent history. As we look to the future, several global conflicts pose significant challenges. Despite some economic struggles, China’s aggressive stance has not diminished, causing concern for both the West and India. 2023: Strategic realities
  1. MIDDLE EAST CRISIS: Efforts over two years to normalize Israel-Arab relations were disrupted by a Hamas attack, resulting in over 1,200 deaths and 230 hostages. Israel’s response, causing over 20,000 Palestinian deaths in Gaza, has drawn international criticism, derailing the reconciliation process.
  2. INDIA-US RELATIONS UNDER STRAIN: Following successful diplomatic visits between PM Modi and President Biden, allegations of an Indian link to a plot against a Khalistani separatist in the US have strained relations. India has pledged to investigate if evidence is provided, marking a different approach from its response to similar allegations from Canada.
  3. RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT WEARINESS: The ongoing war has led to funding challenges for the West. Ukraine’s hopes for financial and military aid from the EU and US have been blocked. Despite sanctions, Russia’s economy remains resilient, and its closeness with China is a concern for the West.
  4. INDIA’S MALDIVES DILEMMA: President Mohamed Muizzu’s government, known for its “India Out” stance, has requested the withdrawal of Indian military personnel and intends to end a water survey pact. This administration is believed to be aligned with China.
  5. CHINA REMAINS A MAJOR CONCERN: China continues to be India’s primary strategic challenge. The border standoff persists into its fourth winter, and China’s influence over Russia and the Maldives exacerbates the situation.
  6. G20 AND GLOBAL SOUTH LEADERSHIP: India’s successful negotiation of a joint declaration at the G20 summit surprised many. A key outcome was India’s mobilization of developing countries under the Global South banner, seen as a modern take on its Non-Alignment leadership.
  7. ENGAGING WITH KABUL: Changes in the Afghanistan embassy in New Delhi have led to assurances that the Taliban flag won’t be flown. India is engaging with the Taliban, with a technical team in Kabul and coordination for passport and visa services for Afghan nationals. China has appointed a full-time envoy in Kabul.
2024: Challenges, opportunities The results of the Lok Sabha elections will significantly influence India’s strategic stance and foreign policy. If the NDA secures a similar or stronger mandate, India’s viewpoints on most global matters and relationships will likely remain steady, possibly becoming more defined and robust. However, if the mandate is weaker, the pressures of a coalition government could impact foreign policy. Regardless of the mandate’s strength, the overall direction of India’s foreign policy choices will maintain continuity, albeit with some subtle refinements.
  1. US & CANADA RELATIONS:
  • The ‘assassination plot’ in the US presents a challenge to resolve. Biden’s absence from Republic Day celebrations and the postponed Quad summit may have caused some displeasure in New Delhi, but both India and the US, having deep mutual investments, don’t want their relationship to suffer.
  • Allegations from Canada have strained its relationship with India. Despite this, India has eased visa restrictions and received public support. However, India’s approach to the US will differ from its approach to Canada.
  1. POTENTIAL CHANGE IN PAKISTAN:
  • Since India’s re-election in 2019 and constitutional changes in Jammu and Kashmir, relations with Pakistan have been strained. Leadership changes in Islamabad and Rawalpindi haven’t made a significant difference, and India has maintained its policy of indifference towards Pakistan.
  • With upcoming elections in Pakistan, a new government may be in place after February. Post-Lok Sabha elections, there might be a chance to reinitiate engagement, but it remains uncertain.
  1. BANGLADESH OUTCOME:
  • The last 15 years of Sheikh Hasina’s government have seen a positive shift in bilateral ties, and India is eager for her re-election.
  • India’s choice in Dhaka is driven by security needs, and the opposition, particularly the Khaleda Zia government of the early 2000s, is viewed with distrust. India aims to enhance connectivity with Bangladesh, benefiting both nations.
  1. ONGOING STALEMATE WITH CHINA:
  • The border standoff since 2020 could become an election issue, and any escalation could affect India’s security and political climate.
  • India will tread carefully in responding to its biggest adversary, especially during an election year, shaping its diplomatic approach towards China.
  1. PROGRESS IN WEST ASIA:
  • India’s stance has evolved over the past two months due to the conflict. It shifted from initial support for Israel to a balanced position with Palestine, culminating in a call for a ceasefire. This diplomatic trajectory, closely observed by the Global South, led to a reality check when India lost the UNESCO vice-chair vote to Pakistan.
  • The Israel-Hamas conflict may be nearing its end, with the West reevaluating its unconditional support for Netanyahu and showing more empathy for Gaza’s residents. This critical juncture could shape the conflict’s resolution and its aftermath.
  1. UKRAINE WAR OUTLOOK:
  • The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has put India’s stance to the test. Russian oil imports are crucial for India to maintain low domestic prices, particularly before elections. However, US pressure has prevented India from fully supporting Moscow.
  • This was evident when the annual India-Russia summit didn’t occur for the second year. The next opportunity for a meeting could be at the BRICS summit in Russia next year. Meanwhile, the war continues, possibly heading towards an uneasy ceasefire.
  1. WESTERN TRADE AGREEMENTS & TECH PARTNERSHIPS:
  • Free trade agreements with the UK and European partners are reportedly at a pivotal point. Upcoming elections in the EU parliament, and potentially in the UK, limit the policy space and negotiators’ flexibility.
  • Nevertheless, these significant economic diplomacy efforts may come to fruition in 2024. Dialogues with the US and EU to eliminate barriers for India to access high-tech fields like AI, quantum computing, and cybersecurity are also areas to watch.
Conclusion-  The geopolitical landscape is complex and ever-changing. From the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine to the strained relations between India and its Western allies, each situation presents unique challenges and opportunities. The outcomes of elections in Bangladesh and Pakistan could significantly influence regional dynamics. Meanwhile, the deadlock with China continues to be a major concern for India. Trade agreements and technological partnerships with Western countries are at a critical juncture, potentially opening up new avenues for cooperation. As these scenarios unfold, they will undoubtedly shape the strategic and foreign policy posture of India and other nations involved. It’s crucial for these countries to navigate these complexities with diplomacy and strategic foresight. The year ahead promises to be a pivotal one in shaping the future of global politics and international relations.
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