INDIA’S NUCLEAR ARSENALS from Vajirao & Reddy Institute

INDIA’S NUCLEAR ARSENALS

• The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its Yearbook 2025 on June 16, 2025.
• The report highlights a significant trend of nuclear modernization by all nine nuclear-armed countries.
• It notes that India has widened its nuclear lead over Pakistan in terms of warhead numbers.
• India is also making notable advancements in missile systems and delivery capabilities, strengthening its nuclear deterrence.

• All nine nuclear-armed states are currently upgrading their nuclear arsenals and adding new weapon systems.
• SIPRI warns that the world is entering a new and dangerous nuclear arms race, as arms control regimes weaken.
• As of January 2025, the total global nuclear warhead inventory is estimated at 12,241 warheads.
• Out of these, 9,614 warheads are in military stockpiles and considered usable.
• Around 3,912 warheads are deployed on missiles and aircraft.
• Approximately 2,100 warheads are on high operational alert, mainly in the United States and Russia.
• The post-Cold War decline in nuclear weapons is now reversing as dismantlement slows.
• The New START Treaty between the US and Russia is set to expire in February 2026, with no new agreement in place.
• China is unwilling to engage in arms control talks, further complicating the global security environment.
• Emerging technologies like Artificial Intelligence and advanced missile defense systems are destabilizing traditional nuclear deterrence models.

• As of January 2025, India is estimated to possess 180 nuclear warheads, an increase from 172 in 2024.
• This places India ahead of Pakistan, which has 170 warheads according to SIPRI.

• India is developing canisterised missile systems, which allow nuclear warheads to be stored and transported already mounted in sealed containers.
• If India adopts a posture where these missiles are deployed with warheads mated, it would reflect a shift towards faster launch readiness and enhanced deterrence flexibility.
• This shift may indicate a movement away from India’s traditional de-alerted posture, where warheads and delivery systems are kept separate.
• SIPRI also notes growing speculation that India may soon equip some missiles with Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs).
• MIRVs would enable a single missile to deliver multiple warheads to separate targets, significantly enhancing India’s strike capabilities and survivability in case of a first strike.

• India’s nuclear posture continues to evolve with the strengthening of its nuclear triad, consisting of:
  • Land-based ballistic missiles,
  • Air-delivered nuclear weapons, and
  • Nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs).
• India’s focus is no longer solely on Pakistan, as it is also developing longer-range delivery systems to deter China in response to Beijing’s expanding nuclear arsenal.

• Pakistan is estimated to have 170 nuclear warheads, maintaining a stable count from the previous year.
• Despite the stable number, Pakistan continues to develop new delivery systems and produce fissile material, suggesting active expansion efforts.
• Unlike India, Pakistan does not follow a declared No First Use (NFU) policy and maintains strategic ambiguity in its doctrine.
• It places significant emphasis on tactical nuclear weapons, designed for battlefield use against India’s conventional superiority.
• This approach is seen as highly destabilizing because it lowers the threshold for nuclear use and increases the risk of early escalation in a conflict.
• Pakistan’s political instability, lack of transparency, and previous nuclear proliferation links raise serious regional and global concerns.
• SIPRI cites an incident in early 2025 where India and Pakistan briefly entered armed conflict, involving strikes on nuclear-linked military sites, and were affected by disinformation campaigns, raising fears of nuclear escalation.

• Russia has the world’s largest arsenal, with approximately 5,880 nuclear warheads.
• Around 2,100 of these warheads are on high operational alert.
• Modernization continues but faces setbacks, including delays in the Sarmat ICBM
• Once the New START Treaty expires, Russia is expected to rearm empty silos and increase deployed warheads.

• The US holds around 5,244 nuclear warheads.
• It is undertaking a comprehensive modernization of its nuclear triad, including new ICBMs, SSBNs, and air-launched cruise missiles.
• Budget and planning issues caused delays and cost overruns in 2024.
• The US is also developing new tactical nuclear weapons, which experts see as destabilizing.
• There is rising internal pressure to rearm deactivated missile launchers in response to China’s growing arsenal.

• China now possesses over 600 nuclear warheads, up from around 500 in 2024.
• It has built over 350 new ICBM silos, especially in remote regions, indicating a focus on second-strike survivability.
• China may now be keeping some warheads mounted on missiles during peacetime, marking a significant doctrinal shift.
• By 2035, China could possess 1,500 warheads, potentially rivaling the US and Russia.

• France maintains about 290 warheads, with minimal fluctuation.
• It is investing in the third generation of SSBNs and new air-launched cruise missiles.
• President Macron has proposed extending French nuclear protection to EU allies, which could affect NATO dynamics.

• The UK is estimated to have 225 warheads, with plans to increase this number.
• It is building four new SSBNs to ensure continuous at-sea deterrence.
• This marks a shift away from earlier disarmament policies.

• Israel is believed to have between 80 and 90 nuclear warheads, maintaining official ambiguity.
• It continues to upgrade its missile capabilities and nuclear infrastructure.
• These developments are particularly important amid tensions with Iran, which has made notable progress in uranium enrichment.

• North Korea has around 50 assembled nuclear warheads, with material for up to 90 in total.
• It is actively developing tactical nuclear weapons and short-range delivery systems.
• Leader Kim Jong Un has called for "limitless" expansion of the nuclear programme.
• The absence of crisis communication channels makes the region highly vulnerable to miscalculation and unintended escalation.

• The erosion of long-standing arms control frameworks has created a more volatile global security environment.
• The focus of major powers has shifted from disarmament to modernization and expansion.

• India’s growing nuclear lead and advanced technologies strengthen its credible deterrence posture.
• The development of canisterised systems and MIRVs may signal a shift toward a quicker response doctrine.
• Pakistan’s continued reliance on tactical nukes raises the risk of early use and nuclear escalation.

• China’s rapid nuclear expansion forces India to modernize and expand its long-range capabilities.
• India must prepare for a two-front deterrence strategy, maintaining stability with both Pakistan and China.

• Regional conflicts (like Israel-Iran or India-Pakistan) risk triggering nuclear confrontation.
• The development and deployment of tactical nuclear weapons lower the threshold for use.
• The integration of AI and automated systems into nuclear command structures could reduce decision-making time and increase the chance of miscalculation.

• SIPRI notes that global disarmament efforts are being undermined by a renewed focus on nuclear buildup.
• The credibility of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is increasingly under threat.

• India continues to follow its No First Use policy and aims to maintain Credible Minimum Deterrence.
• However, its evolving posture and new technologies show a more flexible and responsive strategy, balancing national security with global responsibility.