OPERATION RISING LION: WHY DID ISRAEL HIT IRAN & WHY NOW?
On June 13, 2025, Israel launched an unprecedented military operation, code-named
"Operation Rising Lion," striking deep inside Iran’s territory.
- This was not just a tactical raid but a massive, multi-hour aerial offensive targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities (notably Natanz), ballistic missile sites, senior military commanders, and nuclear scientists.
- Israel claimed this strike was a preemptive act of self-defense against a growing existential threat from Iran’s nuclear program.
- The attack had broad and immediate consequences, sparking retaliatory missile strikes by Iran on June 16, 2025, and causing a significant escalation of tensions throughout the Middle East and beyond.
- The conflict, once largely fought through proxies, has now shifted to direct military engagement between the two adversaries.
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
To understand why Israel launched such a large strike, it is important to look at the history and the deep motivations behind Israel’s hostility towards Iran.
Historical Hostility Since 1979
- Before the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, the country had relatively normal relations with Israel and was even among the first in the region to recognize it.
- After the revolution, Iran’s new theocratic government, led by Ayatollah Khomeini, adopted an aggressive anti-Israel stance, calling Israel the "Little Satan."
- Since then, Iran has opposed Israel’s existence and supported various militant groups such as Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon that are hostile to Israel.
Israel’s Perception of an Existential Threat
- Since the early 2000s, Israel has viewed Iran’s nuclear program as a direct existential threat.
- The fear is that if Iran develops nuclear weapons, it will destabilize the entire region and could potentially start a nuclear arms race among other Middle Eastern countries.
- Israel opposed the 2015 JCPOA (Iran Nuclear Deal) because it allowed Iran to keep some nuclear infrastructure and had what Israel considered weak inspection and enforcement measures.
- Israel feared that the deal would not stop Iran from eventually building nuclear weapons.
Covert and Proxy Warfare
- For many years, Israel has engaged in covert operations against Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
- For example, in 2020, Israel assassinated Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran’s top nuclear scientist.
- Israel has also launched cyber-attacks and limited airstrikes against Iranian nuclear and missile sites.
- However, these actions were limited and indirect, aimed at slowing down Iran rather than triggering an all-out war.
Precursor Direct Actions
- In April 2024, Israel struck the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria.
- This was a significant escalation because it targeted an official Iranian diplomatic mission and indicated Israel’s willingness to conduct direct attacks beyond proxy groups.
- This set the stage for the much larger and direct strikes seen in June 2025.
CHANGING REGIONAL & INTERNATIONAL DYNAMICS
For years, Israel had engaged in covert and proxy conflicts with Iran. So, what changed that allowed Israel to conduct such a large, direct strike?
Weakening of Iran’s Regional “Axis of Resistance”
- Since the October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas, Israel launched what can be called a “mini regional war” against Iran’s proxies and allies.
- Key Iranian proxies like Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon were severely weakened.
- The fall of Assad’s regime in Syria in December 2024 was a huge blow to Iran.
- Assad’s Syria had been the main land bridge between Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, providing strategic support and logistics.
- With the weakening or fall of these proxies, Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” — the network of allied groups that provided Iran strategic depth and influence — was hollowed out.
- This left Iran more vulnerable and reduced its ability to retaliate effectively in the region.
Degradation of Iran’s Domestic Defenses
- In October 2024, Israel carried out a surprise strike inside Iran that targeted Iran’s ballistic missile defense systems.
- This strike lasted several hours and seriously damaged Iran’s ability to protect its nuclear and military infrastructure.
- Because of this, Iran’s nuclear facilities became exposed and vulnerable to further Israeli attacks.
- Israel viewed this as a “historic opportunity” to act decisively and weaken Iran’s nuclear program.
Shift in US Policy and Tacit Approval
- Historically, the United States acted as a restraining influence, often vetoing or discouraging Israeli plans for direct attacks on Iran.
- However, during Donald Trump’s presidency in 2025, the US took a harder line on Iran.
- Trump initially pushed diplomacy but demanded that Iran completely abandon its nuclear program, a much tougher position than the 2015 deal.
- Growing frustration with negotiations led the US to signal that military action against Iran might become necessary.
- While officially denying direct involvement in the June 2025 strike, it is widely believed that Israel acted with at least tacit approval, or a “green light,” from the US.
TARGETS & DAMAGES
Israel’s Operation Rising Lion was a large-scale and coordinated set of airstrikes that hit multiple critical targets in Iran.
Key Targets Hit
- Natanz Enrichment Facility: This is Iran’s main uranium enrichment site.
- Israeli strikes damaged several buildings, especially the power supply to the underground halls where centrifuges operate.
- Isfahan Nuclear Site: 4 major buildings were hit, including uranium conversion plants and research labs.
- Ballistic Missile Bases: Sites in Kermanshah and Tabriz were attacked, destroying around one-third of Iran’s missile launchers.
- Other Sites: Additional attacks targeted the Fordow enrichment facility, the Bushehr nuclear power plant, the Arak heavy water reactor, and a gas refinery in Kangan, which supports Iran’s energy infrastructure.
Casualties
- Iran suffered heavy losses:
- At least 224 people killed, including women, children, and senior military figures such as IRGC Commander Hossein Salami.
- Over 1,200 injured.
- Israel also suffered casualties from Iranian retaliation, with missile strikes causing approximately 18-24 deaths and over 390 injuries.
IRAN’S RETALIATORY STRIKES
In the early hours of Monday, June 16, 2025, Iran launched a major missile attack targeting Israeli cities in direct retaliation for Israel's "Operation Rising Lion."
Scale and Impact of the Strikes:
- Iran fired fewer than 100 missiles overnight, with at least 7 missiles landing inside Israel.
- The attacks struck densely populated areas of Tel Aviv, including residential buildings and neighborhoods near the U.S. Embassy branch, and the northern port city of Haifa.
- A popular market area in Tel Aviv, Shuk HaCarmel, was also hit.
- The missile barrage caused:
- At least 8 initial deaths, all civilians, in Tel Aviv and Haifa.
- Over 100 people wounded.
- Destruction of several homes and buildings.
- Fires at a power plant near Haifa.
- Videos showed multiple missiles over Tel Aviv and explosions heard over Jerusalem. Search and rescue operations were ongoing, with dozens of emergency responders active in Haifa.
Iranian Military Claims:
- Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed their attack used a new method to confuse Israel’s multi-layered missile defense system, causing it to target itself and allowing more Iranian missiles to get through.
Israel’s Response and Warnings to Iran:
- Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz, condemned the missile attacks, calling Tehran’s leadership “cowardly murderers” for targeting civilians.
- Katz warned that residents of Tehran would “pay the price and soon,” though he later clarified that Israel didn't intend to harm ordinary Tehran residents deliberately but would target regime and security infrastructure.
- Israeli military actions continue, with an announcement that the military campaign against Iran would escalate further in the coming days.
INTERNATIONAL REACTIONS
- United States: Denied involvement but supported Israel’s right to self-defense. Urged Iran to return to the negotiating table.
- Saudi Arabia: Condemned the Israeli airstrikes as violations of international law and called for restraint.
- India: Urged calm and peaceful resolution, emphasizing the need to restore stability.
- United Kingdom: Deployed military assets to the region as a precaution.
- China: Criticized Israel’s strikes as violations of Iranian sovereignty and offered diplomatic help to de-escalate tensions.
- European Union: Called for renewed diplomatic efforts and warned Iran against nuclear weapon ambitions.
BROADER CONSEQUENCES & OUTLOOK
Short-Term Effects
- The strikes led to a spike in oil prices due to fears of instability in the Middle East.
- Shipping lanes, especially in the Red Sea, became more dangerous.
- Both Iran and Israel appeared ready to target each other’s homeland, increasing the risk of wider regional war.
Long-Term Outlook
- Iran’s loss of proxies and regional influence weakens its position, but its missile and drone capabilities remain a serious threat.
- Iran’s internal situation — economic sanctions, political dissent, and military losses — could lead it either to escalate the conflict or seek de-escalation.
- International pressure on Iran will increase, but there are few signs of immediate peace.
- The conflict may push other Middle Eastern countries to rethink their alliances and strategies.
CONCLUSION
The June 2025 Israel-Iran flare-up represents a major turning point in Middle Eastern geopolitics. For the first time in many years, Israel moved beyond covert and proxy warfare to conduct a direct, large-scale military strike inside Iran. This shift was made possible by changes in the regional balance of power, degradation of Iran’s defenses, and a shift in US policy.
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